Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has surged nearly 400 per cent in two weeks, raising questions over Iran’s ability to maintain control of the strategic waterway amid its ongoing standoff with the United States.
Nearly 200 vessels navigated the strait last week, compared with 150 the previous week and just 40 two weeks earlier, according to data from the UK Maritime Trade Operations Centre.
The increase has pushed traffic through the critical passage to about 20 per cent of pre-war levels. The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most important oil routes, carrying about 20 per cent of global seaborne oil during peacetime.
Shipping activity nearly ground to a halt after the Iran war began in late February, but vessels have increasingly returned to the waterway despite continued tensions between Tehran and Washington.
Maritime intelligence firm Kpler said more than 80 per cent of liquid cargoes that crossed the strait over the past two weeks either used the Omani route or appeared to have gone “dark”, potentially indicating that they used the same corridor.
The Omani route is a United States-backed channel authorised by the International Maritime Organisation but rejected by Iran.
“It increasingly looks like Iran has at least partially lost control of the strait,” Homayoun Falakshahi, head of crude oil analysis at Kpler, told CNN.
Dan Pickering, founder of Pickering Energy Partners, said the Oman route was becoming increasingly attractive to shipping operators because it could allow vessels to avoid potential tolls imposed by Tehran.
Shipping data showed that 103 vessels entered the strait and 89 exited during the past seven days. This represented a 27 per cent increase from the previous week, when 76 vessels entered and 75 exited.
The increase was even more significant compared with two weeks earlier, when only 18 vessels entered and 21 exited the waterway.
Most of the vessels were registered in Panama and Liberia, although their registration flags do not necessarily indicate where their owners are based. About half of the vessels were oil tankers, while the remainder carried dry cargo.
Despite the increase in traffic, the route remains dangerous.
Five vessels were hit by Iranian projectiles during the past week, with two people reportedly injured or killed. The vessels sustained damage but were not lost.
The United States has also reportedly been quietly escorting oil tankers through the strait since May, using tactics associated with so-called shadow fleets, including switching off radar systems and sailing close to Oman’s coastline.
The increase in shipping activity comes as efforts to negotiate an end to the conflict and resolve the dispute over control of the Strait of Hormuz remain uncertain.
US President Donald Trump recently said the waterway had been de-mined and reopened, declaring that “The Hormuz Strait is open and operating.”
Trump has also threatened tougher sanctions against Iran, describing the planned measures as the “most crushing economic operation ever undertaken” against the country.
Iran, however, has warned that it would retaliate against further US economic action.
“If Trump wants to take action, we will retaliate in an earthquake-like manner,” Supreme National Security Council Secretary Mohsen Rezaei said in a televised interview.
He also warned neighbouring countries against supporting Washington’s economic measures, saying countries that cooperate with the United States in its economic campaign against Iran would be considered enemies.
The sharp recovery in shipping traffic suggests that commercial operators are gradually returning to the strategic waterway, although the continued attacks and military tensions mean the Strait of Hormuz remains a high-risk route for global energy trade.
