Zambians will vote in a closely watched presidential election that will test whether recent economic gains can outweigh widespread frustration over the high cost of living in one of Africa’s more stable democracies.
Incumbent President Hakainde Hichilema faces Brian Mundubile, a former minister and ally of late President Edgar Lungu, who has emerged as the leading opposition challenger after rival parties joined forces behind his candidacy.
Up to 8.7 million registered voters, a majority of them women, are expected to participate in the election and decide whether Hichilema’s economic reforms deserve another term or whether the opposition can capitalise on dissatisfaction over living costs and economic hardship.
Hichilema, leader of the United Party for National Development (UPND), won the presidency in 2021 on his sixth attempt, defeating Lungu and securing a peaceful transfer of power to an opposition party through the ballot box.
He inherited an economy in sovereign default after years of heavy borrowing under Lungu.
Since taking office, Hichilema’s administration has secured a major debt restructuring agreement, restored an International Monetary Fund programme and returned the economy to growth, earning praise from international lenders and investors.
However, the economic recovery has yet to translate into significantly improved living conditions for many Zambians.
Rising food prices, unemployment and persistent poverty remain major concerns, with more than 70% of the population living on less than $3 a day, according to World Bank data.
“Worldwide there has been recognition that we are doing well but he needs to bring it home,” medical student Semi Malama, 26, told AFP.
Zambia is Africa’s second-largest copper producer, and the government has set an ambitious target of tripling copper production by 2031.
Chinese companies remain major players in the country’s mining industry, reinforcing Beijing’s significant economic influence in Zambia.
The opposition has sought to make household economic pressures a central campaign issue, arguing that the government’s reforms have not delivered sufficient improvements in living standards despite the broader economic recovery.
Hichilema, who is 64 and widely known as “HH”, had appeared well positioned for re-election before the opposition coalesced around Mundubile.
Although 14 candidates are on the ballot, analysts say the election has effectively narrowed into a contest between Hichilema and Mundubile.
“The opposition alliance is bringing energy to their rallies and appealing to youth, women, and rural voters,” Joseph Siegle, director of research at the Africa Center for Strategic Studies, told AFP.
Mundubile’s strategy is largely focused on consolidating support previously held by Lungu’s Patriotic Front, particularly in northern and eastern Zambia, where the former ruling party has traditionally maintained a strong base.
However, analysts say Mundubile’s relatively late emergence as the main opposition candidate and his association with the Lungu era could make it difficult for him to expand his support beyond those regions.
Young voters could play a decisive role in the election, with nearly half of registered voters aged between 18 and 35.
“Ultimately, the election will hinge on whether voters believe continuity offers the best chance of consolidating recent economic reforms, or whether they conclude that change is needed to address immediate economic pressures,” Institute for Security Studies researcher Zenge Simakoloyi told AFP.
The campaign has also been marked by incidents of violence and allegations of intimidation.
Police have used tear gas to disperse clashes between rival supporters, while Mundubile’s National Republican Party has accused authorities of restricting its campaign activities.
Mundubile last week alleged that snipers had been deployed at a campaign event in Mongu, about 580 kilometres west of the capital, Lusaka.
He described the use of tear gas as “just the tip of the iceberg”.
Polling stations are scheduled to open at 6:00 a.m. local time on Thursday and close 12 hours later.
Zambians will also vote for an expanded parliament, with the number of directly elected members of parliament increasing to 226 from 156.
According to the electoral commission’s calendar, presidential results are expected by August 17.
A candidate must secure more than 50% of valid votes to win the presidency outright. If no candidate reaches the threshold, the leading contenders will proceed to a run-off.
Analysts say the outcome could be determined by relatively small shifts in voter support across Zambia’s 10 provinces.
Beyond the presidential contest, the election will also test Zambia’s reputation for political stability amid growing concerns over restrictions on dissent and what critics describe as a narrowing political space.
