Renewed conflict in Ethiopia and a worsening economic crisis in Sudan are creating additional pressure across the Horn of Africa, where several countries are simultaneously confronting political, humanitarian and security challenges.
Tigrayan forces have launched a new offensive against Ethiopian government positions, raising fears of a return to large-scale conflict.
In neighbouring Sudan, meanwhile, the pound has lost nearly half its value in army-controlled areas since the beginning of summer, further reducing households’ ability to afford basic commodities.
Multiple Crises Intersect
The region’s challenges are interconnected.
Conflict can push refugees across borders, disrupt trade corridors and increase pressure on governments and humanitarian organisations in neighbouring countries.
Sudan’s war has already displaced millions, while Ethiopia’s previous Tigray conflict generated significant internal displacement.
Somalia also continues to face humanitarian and security pressures.
The combination means another major conflict could have consequences well beyond the country in which it begins.
Economic Effects Growing
Regional instability also carries economic consequences.
Cross-border commerce, transportation routes, agricultural production and investment can all suffer when security deteriorates.
Sudan provides a particularly stark example.
Its currency collapse has increased import costs and contributed to shortages, while productive regions are divided between competing authorities.
The coming weeks will therefore be important in determining whether Ethiopia’s latest escalation can be contained and whether diplomatic efforts in Sudan can make progress towards reducing hostilities.
