US President Donald Trump’s ceasefire agreement with Iran has triggered a major political and strategic dilemma for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, reshaping the regional balance of power and intensifying domestic criticism ahead of Israel’s upcoming elections.
The agreement, which aims to end months of conflict between the United States and Iran and includes provisions affecting military activity in Lebanon, has reportedly sidelined Israel from key negotiations, prompting accusations that Netanyahu has been excluded by Washington at a critical moment.
Analysts say the deal undermines three central pillars of Netanyahu’s long-standing political narrative: his close influence over US policy on Iran, his aggressive security doctrine toward Tehran, and his image as Israel’s foremost “Mr Security.”
Opposition leader Yair Lapid described the situation in the Knesset as a choice between “a direct and destructive confrontation with our greatest ally, or a submissive surrender of Israeli interests,” highlighting growing political pressure on the prime minister.
Criticism has also emerged from within Netanyahu’s governing coalition. Far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir rejected the agreement outright, stating, “Trump’s agreement does not bind us. We are not partners to this agreement that does not ensure our security.”
Likud lawmaker Ariel Kallner echoed cautious resistance, saying Israel would “do what we need to do” while expecting its allies to “understand” its security concerns, though he avoided confirming whether military operations would continue.
Former Israeli intelligence official Sima Shine said it was unclear why Washington accepted the terms of the deal, warning that Iran could retain influence over Hezbollah in Lebanon and continue shaping regional dynamics in its favour.
“By allowing Iran to decide what will happen in Lebanon, the US is giving Iran the possibility to continue to support Hezbollah,” she said.
Netanyahu, meanwhile, has defended his record, reiterating that preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons remains his central objective. Speaking in Jerusalem, he insisted Israel would maintain full operational freedom to respond to threats.
“We will do what is necessary. I do not limit myself in any way on this goal: Iran will not have nuclear weapons,” he said, while acknowledging differences with Washington over aspects of the agreement.
The deal has also intensified scrutiny of Israel’s broader military strategy since the October 7, 2023 Hamas attacks, which led to a sweeping offensive across Gaza and expanded operations in Lebanon and Syria.
While Israeli forces remain active across multiple fronts, critics argue that prolonged military engagement has not fully eliminated Israel’s adversaries and has placed significant strain on military resources and reservist systems.
According to security analysts, repeated confrontations with Iran and its regional allies have not weakened Tehran’s influence but may have strengthened hardline factions and increased Iran’s leverage over critical energy routes such as the Strait of Hormuz.
Danny Citrinowicz of Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies warned that Israel may need to reassess its approach to Iran, arguing that any perceived attempt to undermine the US-brokered agreement could provoke a strong response from Washington.
He also noted that Netanyahu no longer has the political tools he once used to shape US policy, such as bypassing the White House through Congress and American public opinion.
Domestically, Netanyahu faces growing political uncertainty as the ceasefire reshapes voter perceptions of his security-first leadership brand. Analysts say his traditional pitch—that only his leadership can guarantee Israel’s security—has been significantly weakened by shifting regional dynamics.
With elections due by the end of October, Netanyahu now faces mounting pressure from both allies and opponents over how to respond to a ceasefire that has altered Israel’s strategic position while strengthening Iran’s diplomatic standing.
