Fresh tensions in Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region are raising fears that the country could face another major conflict, nearly four years after a peace agreement brought an end to the devastating Tigray war.
The latest concerns come after renewed clashes between forces linked to Ethiopia’s federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). Fighting that broke out earlier this month in western Tigray was described as one of the most serious threats to the fragile Pretoria peace agreement signed in November 2022. Both sides have blamed each other for starting the violence.
The 2022 Pretoria Agreement ended the large-scale war between Ethiopia’s federal government and Tigrayan forces. However, several important parts of the agreement remain unresolved, including disarmament, disputed territories, the withdrawal of non-federal forces and the full political reintegration of Tigray. These unresolved issues have continued to create tension between Addis Ababa and Tigray’s political leadership.
International concern has increased in recent days. The European Union, the African Union and several diplomatic missions have warned that renewed military confrontation in Tigray could be devastating for civilians, especially as the region is already struggling with drought, displacement and serious humanitarian needs.
Efforts are now being made to prevent the situation from escalating. Former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo, who played a major role in mediating the 2022 peace agreement, has reportedly held renewed consultations with leaders in Addis Ababa and Mekelle as part of African Union-backed efforts to restart dialogue.
The situation is also complicated by growing tensions between Ethiopia and neighbouring Eritrea. Ethiopia’s interest in gaining greater access to the Red Sea and unresolved regional rivalries have added another layer of concern. Analysts warn that a new conflict could involve more actors and become wider than a dispute between the federal government and the TPLF.
For ordinary people in Tigray, the fear of another war is especially painful. The previous conflict caused enormous destruction, displacement and humanitarian suffering. Although large-scale fighting ended after the Pretoria Agreement, many communities are still recovering from the effects of the war.
The coming weeks will be crucial as Ethiopian authorities, Tigrayan leaders and international mediators attempt to prevent further violence. The main challenge remains whether both sides can return to meaningful dialogue and fully address the issues left unresolved by the 2022 peace deal.
