Nigeria lost approximately 3.33 million barrels of crude oil to theft in 2025, with nearly two-thirds of the reported losses occurring in the final three months of the year, according to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).
The development comes as the commission recorded a significant decline in crude oil and gas revenue collections, which fell by ₦2.14 trillion in 2025 compared with the previous year.
According to the commission’s 2025 annual report, released on Thursday, crude oil and gas revenue collections dropped from ₦12.56 trillion in 2024 to ₦10.42 trillion in 2025, representing a decline of 17.03 per cent.
The figures highlight the continued challenges facing Nigeria’s petroleum industry, particularly crude oil theft, pipeline-related losses and revenue pressures affecting the country’s upstream sector.
Despite the decline in overall collections, the commission recorded improvements in receipts from gas flare penalties, signature bonuses and concession rentals.
Crude oil theft rises sharply in fourth quarter
Data contained in the NUPRC annual report showed that crude oil theft increased significantly during the fourth quarter of 2025.
The commission recorded approximately 2.19 million barrels of crude oil theft between October and December, representing 65.8 per cent of the total reported volume for the year.
The fourth-quarter figure was almost five times the 440,434 barrels recorded in the third quarter.
In the first quarter, Nigeria recorded 896,471 barrels of crude oil theft.
However, the second-quarter report showed a negative figure of 200,400 barrels, which the commission attributed to excess volumes identified during reconciliation.
The quarterly figures collectively brought the reported annual crude oil theft volume to approximately 3.33 million barrels.
The sharp increase towards the end of the year raises concerns about the effectiveness of measures aimed at protecting oil infrastructure and reducing losses within the petroleum industry.
Revenue collections decline by ₦2.14 trillion
The impact of challenges within the upstream petroleum sector was also reflected in the commission’s revenue figures.
NUPRC’s crude oil and gas revenue collections declined from ₦12.56 trillion in 2024 to ₦10.42 trillion in 2025.
This represents a reduction of approximately ₦2.14 trillion, or 17.03 per cent.
The decline is significant because petroleum revenue remains an important source of foreign exchange earnings and government income in Nigeria.
Crude oil theft reduces the volume of petroleum available for legitimate commercial sales and can affect the revenue expected from production activities.
However, the reported revenue decline should not be attributed entirely to crude oil theft, as petroleum earnings are also influenced by production levels, international oil prices, exchange rates and other operational factors.
The improvement in receipts from gas flare penalties, signature bonuses and concession rentals provided some positive developments within the commission’s revenue collection activities.
Nevertheless, these increases were insufficient to prevent the overall decline in crude oil and gas revenue collections.
Oil theft remains a major challenge for Nigeria
Crude oil theft has remained one of the major problems affecting Nigeria’s petroleum industry for several years.
The practice involves the illegal tapping of pipelines, unauthorised extraction of crude oil and diversion of petroleum products from legitimate supply channels.
These activities can result in substantial financial losses for the government and oil-producing companies.
Oil theft also creates operational difficulties for petroleum producers, particularly when pipeline damage disrupts production and transportation activities.
Beyond the financial implications, illegal oil activities can contribute to environmental pollution, damage agricultural land and affect communities in oil-producing areas.
The Niger Delta remains particularly vulnerable to the effects of illegal petroleum activities because of the concentration of oil infrastructure and production facilities in the region.
Implications for government revenue and investment
The reported losses could further complicate Nigeria’s efforts to improve crude oil production and strengthen public revenue.
The petroleum industry plays an important role in the country’s economy through foreign exchange earnings, government revenue and investment opportunities.
Persistent crude oil theft can weaken investor confidence by increasing operational risks and creating uncertainty around production targets.
It can also affect the government’s ability to generate sufficient revenue for infrastructure, healthcare, education and other public services.
For international oil companies and indigenous producers, reducing security threats remains important for maintaining stable production and protecting investments.
The government has continued to emphasise the importance of improving security around oil facilities and strengthening monitoring across the petroleum value chain.
Need for stronger monitoring and accountability
The latest NUPRC figures highlight the need for stronger efforts to address crude oil theft and improve transparency in the petroleum industry.
Effective monitoring of pipelines, production facilities and crude oil transportation systems will be important in reducing illegal activities.
There is also a need for improved coordination among regulatory agencies, security organisations, oil producers and host communities.
Technology-driven monitoring systems, accurate production measurement and regular reconciliation of crude oil volumes could help identify discrepancies and reduce opportunities for illegal diversion.
The commission’s annual report provides an important picture of the challenges facing Nigeria’s upstream petroleum sector.
However, reversing the trend will require sustained action to protect oil infrastructure, improve production efficiency and strengthen revenue collection.
For Nigeria, reducing crude oil theft is not only a security priority but also an important part of efforts to improve economic stability and maximise the benefits of its petroleum resources.
