Fighting has intensified in northern Ethiopia, particularly around the Tigray region, as clashes between federal government forces and Tigrayan fighters threaten to undermine the peace agreement that ended the country’s devastating 2020–2022 war.
The renewed violence is the most serious escalation since the 2022 Pretoria Agreement, which brought an end to the two-year Tigray conflict. Reuters reported that Tigrayan forces launched a major offensive on September 23, with clashes also reported in neighbouring Afar and Amhara regions.
The latest escalation follows months of rising tensions between the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s federal government. Tigrayan leaders have described their actions as defensive, while the federal government has accused armed groups of launching attacks against the state.
The situation became more complicated after seven Ethiopian armed groups announced an alliance aimed at removing Abiy Ahmed’s government. The coalition includes the TPLF, the Amhara Fano National Movement, the Oromo Liberation Army and groups from Afar, Somali and Benishangul-Gumuz regions.
The alliance brings together groups that have previously been on opposing sides of Ethiopia’s conflicts. Reuters reported that the groups remain divided over territorial and political questions, raising uncertainty about how closely they can cooperate.
Fighting spreads
The Ethiopian military has reported heavy fighting in parts of the Amhara region. On September 24, the army said it had killed 272 Tigrayan fighters, wounded 260 others and captured several more during a counter-offensive in North Wollo.
Those figures are claims from the Ethiopian military and could not be independently verified. Tigrayan authorities, meanwhile, have described the situation as a full-scale war and accused federal forces of launching a major offensive.
The renewed fighting has also affected transportation and communications. Flights to Lalibela, a major tourist destination known for its historic rock-hewn churches, were suspended after fighting reached the surrounding area. Internet and telephone networks have also been disrupted in parts of Tigray.
Residents in Mekelle, the capital of Tigray, have reported fear and uncertainty, with roads disrupted and people attempting to leave areas affected by the fighting.
Regional concerns
The escalation has raised concerns beyond Ethiopia’s borders because of the country’s relationship with neighbouring Eritrea. Ethiopian military officials have accused Eritrea of supporting armed groups, while Eritrea has denied the accusations.
The renewed conflict also comes after years of efforts to maintain peace following the 2020–2022 war, which resulted in a very high death toll and widespread displacement. Reuters reported that the new fighting is threatening to unravel the four-year-old peace arrangement.
For now, fighting remains concentrated in northern Ethiopia, but the involvement of armed groups from several regions has increased concern about the possibility of the conflict spreading.
The United Nations and other international actors have expressed concern over the escalation, particularly reports of attacks and the potential impact on civilians.
