The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned that there is an 80 percent chance of the El Niño climate phenomenon developing between June and August, raising concerns over increased risks of extreme weather events worldwide.
The UN weather and climate agency said on Tuesday that unusually warm ocean waters in the tropical Pacific are already signalling the development of El Niño conditions, which are expected to influence global temperature and rainfall patterns.
“Fuelled by unusually warm ocean waters in the tropical Pacific, El Niño conditions are developing and are set to influence global temperature and rainfall patterns,” the WMO said.
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate event that warms surface waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, disrupting normal wind, pressure, and rainfall systems across the globe.
It typically occurs every two to seven years and lasts for about nine to 12 months, alternating with its cooling counterpart, La Niña, and neutral conditions in between.
The WMO said global forecasting models indicate a strong likelihood of El Niño forming, with probabilities reaching 80 percent for the June–August period and rising above 90 percent by November.
The agency added that most models suggest the upcoming event could be at least moderate in strength, with a possibility of it becoming strong.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo warned that the world must prepare for potentially severe impacts, including droughts, heavy rainfall, heatwaves, and warming ocean conditions.
She noted that even a moderate El Niño can significantly increase the likelihood of extreme weather events across multiple regions.
The WMO also highlighted that the last El Niño contributed to record global temperatures, including 2023 becoming the second hottest year on record and 2024 reaching the highest global average temperature recorded to date.
According to the agency, sea surface temperatures in parts of the equatorial Pacific are already approaching El Niño thresholds, with subsurface heat anomalies significantly above average.
The Southern Oscillation Index, another key indicator of the phenomenon, is also consistent with developing El Niño conditions.
While the WMO clarified that climate change does not increase the frequency of El Niño events, it warned that rising global temperatures can intensify their impacts by adding more heat and moisture into the atmosphere.
United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres described the development as a “climate warning” that should be treated with urgency.
“El Niño is arriving on our doorstep,” Guterres said, calling for accelerated climate action, including a transition away from fossil fuels and stronger protection for vulnerable communities.
The WMO said 128 countries now have early warning systems in place, though global coverage is still short of its 2027 universal target.
Climate projections indicate that the coming months could bring above-normal temperatures across much of the globe, along with altered rainfall patterns affecting agriculture, water supply, and energy systems.
Regional forecasts also suggest below-normal rainfall in parts of Africa and Asia, as well as increased risks of drought in Central America and other vulnerable regions.
Meteorologists warn that El Niño conditions during the Northern Hemisphere summer can also influence tropical storm activity, increasing hurricane risks in parts of the Pacific while suppressing activity in the Atlantic.
The WMO said updated forecasts next month will provide clearer indications of the strength and timing of the developing event.
