Ethiopia will hold parliamentary and regional elections on Monday, with analysts widely expecting Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and his Prosperity Party to secure another decisive victory, despite ongoing unrest in several parts of the country.
More than 50 million registered voters are expected to participate, although voting will not take place in the northern Tigray region due to what the electoral board described as “unfavourable conditions” following years of conflict and continuing political instability.
The elections come in the aftermath of a devastating civil war in Tigray between 2020 and 2022, which left hundreds of thousands of people dead and displaced millions, according to independent estimates.
Abiy, who came to power in 2018 following widespread anti-government protests, has since consolidated political authority through the Prosperity Party, which won a dominant majority in the 2021 elections.
His party has campaigned on claims of economic progress, including improved food security and strong growth projections that place Ethiopia among the fastest-growing economies in Africa.
However, the political environment remains deeply strained, with armed conflicts continuing in key regions of the country.
In Oromiya, Ethiopia’s largest region, government forces have been engaged in prolonged clashes with the Oromo Liberation Army, a separatist group that has fuelled instability and displacement.
In Amhara, militia activity by Fano has intensified since 2023, with reports of territorial control in rural areas and disruptions to electoral preparations in multiple constituencies.
As a result, voting will not take place in at least eight constituencies in Amhara, raising concerns about the inclusiveness of the electoral process.
Despite these challenges, the Prosperity Party is widely expected to dominate the polls, facing a fragmented opposition weakened by internal divisions and operational constraints.
Results are expected to be announced by June 11.
Opposition parties have accused the government of restricting political space through arrests and administrative barriers, allegations denied by officials, who argue that security concerns necessitate such measures.
Ethiopia’s political trajectory under Abiy has drawn both international praise and criticism. He was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019 for his role in ending the long-standing conflict with Eritrea.
However, critics and human rights groups have accused his administration of reversing earlier democratic gains, citing concerns over media restrictions, civil society limitations, and military operations in conflict-affected regions.
Tensions with Eritrea have also resurfaced in recent years amid renewed disputes over Ethiopia’s demand for sea access, which Addis Ababa considers vital for its long-term economic development.
Eritrea has interpreted such rhetoric as potentially aggressive, further straining relations between the two neighbours.
As Ethiopia approaches the election results, analysts warn that ongoing insecurity and regional fragmentation could continue to shape the country’s political landscape well beyond the vote.
