Japan’s fertility rate has fallen once again to a record low, according to official data released on Wednesday, highlighting the country’s worsening demographic crisis.
The country, which is the world’s fourth-largest economy, is grappling with one of the lowest birth rates globally alongside a rapidly ageing and shrinking population.
Government figures show that Japan’s total fertility rate — the average number of children a woman is expected to have in her lifetime — dropped to 1.14 last year, down by 0.01 from the previous year. This marks the tenth consecutive annual decline.
The number of babies born in the country also fell sharply, declining by nearly 15,000 to just over 670,000. This is the lowest level recorded since national statistics began in 1899.
The latest figures follow preliminary data released in February, which had indicated around 706,000 births. However, those earlier figures included non-Japanese babies born in the country and Japanese citizens born abroad, making the revised number significantly lower.
Experts note that the decline in births is occurring much faster than earlier projections had anticipated. According to local reports citing Japan’s National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, the current trend is up to 15 years ahead of previous forecasts.
In 2023, the institute had estimated that annual births would not fall below 680,000 until around 2040. However, that threshold has already been surpassed, reflecting the accelerating demographic decline.
Japan’s overall population has also continued to shrink. A census conducted last month showed a record 2.5 percent drop in the total population over the past five years, marking one of the steepest declines in recent history.
The demographic downturn is raising concerns about long-term economic stability, with labour shortages, rising social security costs and a shrinking tax base placing increasing pressure on public finances.
While immigration is often discussed as a potential solution to Japan’s population decline, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has advocated for stricter controls on the inflow of foreign nationals.
In response to the crisis, central and local authorities have introduced a range of measures aimed at encouraging higher birth rates, including dating initiatives, expanded child-rearing allowances and subsidised parental leave policies.
However, these efforts have so far had limited impact in reversing the long-term trend.
Demographers warn that without significant structural changes, Japan’s population decline could continue to accelerate, posing serious challenges for economic growth and social stability in the decades ahead.
