The United Nations has warned that global temperatures are likely to remain at or near record highs this year and over the next four years.
In a report released on Thursday, the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) said there is an 86 per cent chance that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will become the hottest ever recorded, surpassing the current record set in 2024.
The agency also stated there is a 75 per cent chance that the average global temperature between 2026 and 2030 will exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
“Global average temperatures are likely to continue at or near record levels in the next five years,” the WMO said in its latest climate outlook.
The warning comes as several parts of western Europe experience unusually high temperatures caused by a “heat dome” trapping warm air across the region. Britain and France have both recorded unusually hot weather for May.
Leon Hermanson, lead author of the WMO’s Global Annual-to-Decadal Update, said a possible El Nino event later in 2026 could further raise temperatures worldwide.
“There is an El Nino predicted for the end of 2026, which increases the chances of the following year, 2027, being the next record-breaking year,” Hermanson explained.
El Nino is a natural climate pattern that warms ocean surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean and affects weather systems around the world. It often leads to hotter global temperatures, changes in rainfall patterns and extreme weather events.
Scientists said the last El Nino contributed to making 2023 the second-hottest year ever recorded, while 2024 became the warmest year on record at about 1.55 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
The 2015 Paris Climate Agreement aimed to keep long-term global warming below 2 degrees Celsius and ideally below 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to temperatures recorded between 1850 and 1900.
According to the WMO report, annual global temperatures between 2026 and 2030 are expected to range from 1.3 degrees Celsius to 1.9 degrees Celsius above the historical average.
The organisation added that there is a 91 per cent chance that at least one year during that period will temporarily cross the 1.5-degree threshold.
However, experts noted that a temporary rise above 1.5 degrees Celsius does not automatically mean the long-term Paris climate target has failed. The agreement measures warming trends over several decades rather than individual years.
The report also warned that Arctic temperatures are expected to rise much faster than the global average over the next five winters.
Meanwhile, rainfall patterns are predicted to shift significantly, with wetter conditions expected in regions such as the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska and Siberia, while drier conditions may affect the Amazon region.
The climate update was prepared by the WMO and Britain’s Met Office, using forecasts from 13 international climate institutes.
