Egypt’s annual inflation rate eased slightly to 14.9% in April, down from 15.2% in March, according to data released by the Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics.
The decline reflects a modest slowdown in price pressures, even as the economy continues to grapple with rising fuel costs, currency weakness, and broader regional instability linked to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.
On a monthly basis, inflation slowed sharply to 1.1% in April from 3.2% in March, indicating a potential easing in short-term price momentum that could influence future monetary policy decisions.
Food and beverage prices, which make up the largest portion of Egypt’s inflation basket, rose 6.7% year-on-year in April, up from 5.8% in March, highlighting continued pressure on household spending.
Inflation in Egypt had previously surged to a record 38% in September 2023, before gradually easing following the country’s $8bn support programme with the International Monetary Fund agreed in March 2024.
However, economists warn that inflationary pressures may return in the coming months.
A recent increase in natural gas prices announced on May 3 is expected to raise production costs in energy-intensive industries, potentially feeding into broader price increases in May.
In addition, ongoing geopolitical tensions have contributed to foreign investment outflows, depreciation of the Egyptian pound, and higher imported energy costs, particularly following disruptions linked to maritime security in the Strait of Hormuz.
Analysts say the combination of external shocks and domestic price adjustments could complicate Egypt’s inflation outlook despite recent signs of short-term stabilisation.
Policymakers are now closely watching whether the current slowdown in monthly inflation will persist long enough to justify a shift toward more accommodative monetary policy.
