The International Energy Agency (IEA) has called for expanded upstream investments in existing oil and gas fields to ensure the stability of global energy security. This statement was made by IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol at the CERAWeek by S&P Global conference held in Houston.
While the IEA previously emphasized that new oil and gas fields would not be necessary to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, the agency’s stance is shifting to address the immediate needs of global energy markets.
In 2021, the IEA stated that no new investments in conventional oil and gas fields or coal mines were needed beyond 2023, anticipating that clean energy deployment would drive peak fossil fuel demand this decade. However, with energy security becoming a growing concern amidst geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty, the agency now recognizes the critical importance of maintaining existing fossil fuel infrastructure.
At the CERAWeek conference, Birol clarified the IEA’s position, saying, “I want to make it clear… there would be a need for investment, especially to address the decline in the existing fields.” The need for investment in oil and gas upstream activities has never been more urgent, according to Birol, especially in light of declining production levels from existing fields.
“We need oil and gas upstream investments, full stop,” Birol reiterated, underscoring the importance of sustaining the energy supply while transitioning to cleaner energy alternatives.
According to IEA data, approximately $360 billion of the $400 billion annual investment in the oil and gas sector is directed at offsetting declines from existing oil and gas fields, highlighting the scale of investment required to maintain current energy output.
The IEA’s stance has drawn criticism from members of OPEC, who argue that the agency’s pro-transition narrative could lead to energy shortages and market volatility. OPEC officials have repeatedly criticized the IEA’s forecasts, claiming they risk causing significant harm to consumers and driving energy markets into unprecedented volatility.
Earlier this year, Neil Atkinson, former head of the IEA’s oil industry and markets department, suggested that the agency’s reports may be dangerously inaccurate due to their marked pro-transition bias.
Atkinson, who co-authored a report with Mark P. Mills from the National Center for Energy Analytics, called on the IEA to focus on its original mandate of monitoring oil market developments and industry outlooks, rather than pushing for a clean energy transition agenda at the expense of immediate energy needs.
Despite these criticisms, the IEA’s position on upstream investment remains firm. The agency continues to advocate for a balanced energy approach—one that addresses both the short-term need for stable energy supplies and the long-term goal of reducing reliance on fossil fuels.
As the global energy market evolves, the IEA’s role in navigating this complex transition will remain critical to maintaining both energy security and climate goals
