China’s exports surged by more than 20% in the first two months of 2026, official figures show, defying forecasts and ongoing trade tensions with the United States. The growth rate is nearly three times higher than economists had predicted, positioning the country to surpass the record-breaking annual trade surplus achieved in 2025.
The announcement comes ahead of an expected visit by US President Donald Trump to China, where he is set to meet President Xi Jinping in early April.
As the world’s second-largest economy, China remains heavily reliant on exports amid a weak domestic consumer market, a shrinking population, and a struggling property sector. To account for the Lunar New Year holiday, which falls on varying dates each year, Beijing typically combines January and February trade data—a practice that makes this surge particularly notable.
The export growth was driven primarily by strong demand for electronics, while shipments of agricultural and manufactured goods also rose. Trade with European countries expanded by 27.8%, and exports to ASEAN nations—including Thailand, Singapore, and Philippines—jumped nearly 30%.
However, exports to the United States fell more than 10% as tariffs and other measures imposed by Trump to address trade imbalances continued to weigh on shipments.
Last week, China set an annual economic growth target of 4.5%-5% for 2026, down from the 5% goal achieved in 2025, which was largely fueled by exports. Analysts note that exports have remained a critical driver of the Chinese economy, compensating for sluggish domestic demand and the ongoing property market crisis.
The upcoming Trump-Xi meeting comes at a time when China, like many other Asian countries, is grappling with the economic impact of the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, which has disrupted global energy markets.
